WSI Calls for Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hurricane Andrew, 1992. Courtesy of NOAA Photo Library

By Mark E. Ruquet

A weather forecasting company connected with the Weather Channel is calling for a quiet Atlantic Basin Hurricane season this year, the second notable service to do so.

Weather Services International (WSI), based in Andover, Mass., recently issued an update to an earlier forecast saying it expects 11 named storms of which five could become hurricanes. Of the five, two could become major hurricanes this season.

“These numbers are lower than both the 1950-2013 normals of 12 [named storms]/7 [hurricanes]/3 [major hurricanes] and the more recent active period (1995-2013) normals of 15 [named storms]/8 [hurricanes]/4 [major hurricanes],” said WSI in a statement.

“The latest data still suggests that a relatively quiet season is in store for the Atlantic basin,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford. “Tropical Atlantic surface temperatures are the coolest they’ve been for this time of year since 1994, and we are increasingly confident that a significant El Nino event is on the way, which typically results in an environment that is not favorable for Atlantic tropical development.”

WSI said it will update its forecast on May 20.

In my blog posting on April 29, I shared the April forecast from the Colorado State University hurricane research team led by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach. Their early season forecast calls for nine named storms of which three could become hurricanes and one may reach major hurricane strength.

Major hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale are Category 3, 4 or 5. The Category 3 storm has sustained winds between 111 – 130 mph and devastating damage will occur. The winds of a Category 4 storm will reach 131 – 155 mph and cause catastrophic damage, such as Hurricane Charley in 2004. The most fearsome is the Category 5 with sustained winds in excess of 155 mph. Hurricane Andrew, which hit Florida in 1992, was a Category 5 storm.

The Atlantic Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs to November 30.

One observation forecasters continually make is that despite the fact that it appears this year may shape up to be a “quiet” hurricane season, it only takes one major one to make landfall and turn everyone’s life upside down.