NOAA Says Odds In Favor of Below Normal Hurricane Season

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook; Courtesy of NOAA 

By Mark E. Ruquet

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that it expects a normal to below-normal Atlantic Basin hurricane season this year.

NOAA said on Thursday that there is a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season and only 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. 

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast said there is a 70 percent likelihood of eight to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes, a storm with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. Of the three to six hurricanes, one to two could become major hurricanes, Category 3, 4 or 5 defined as storms with winds of 111 mph or higher.

The forecast is near or below the seasonal averages of 12 names storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average number of hurricanes during the period 1981 to 2010, NOAA said. The Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins June 1, and covers the regions of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said the Atlantic, which has experienced above-normal seasons in 12 of the last 20 years—“has been in an era of high activity for hurricanes since 1995. However, this high activity pattern is expected to be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño, and by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures than we’ve seen in recent years.”

Bell said the El Niño is creating conditions of strong trade winds and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic that should produce the “near-average” ocean temperatures suggesting fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

The forecast is in line with earlier forecasts released by Colorado State University and Weather Services International. Both call for a below normal Atlantic Hurricane season this year.

Despite the forecast Joe Mimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery, reminded people that, “It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm making landfall to have disastrous impacts on our communities.” He underscored the need to prepare for the worse and know understand the risks from a storm in your neighborhood.