NOAA Says Odds In Favor of Below Normal Hurricane Season

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook; Courtesy of NOAA 

By Mark E. Ruquet

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that it expects a normal to below-normal Atlantic Basin hurricane season this year.

NOAA said on Thursday that there is a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season and only 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. 

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast said there is a 70 percent likelihood of eight to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes, a storm with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. Of the three to six hurricanes, one to two could become major hurricanes, Category 3, 4 or 5 defined as storms with winds of 111 mph or higher.

The forecast is near or below the seasonal averages of 12 names storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average number of hurricanes during the period 1981 to 2010, NOAA said. The Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins June 1, and covers the regions of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said the Atlantic, which has experienced above-normal seasons in 12 of the last 20 years—“has been in an era of high activity for hurricanes since 1995. However, this high activity pattern is expected to be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño, and by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures than we’ve seen in recent years.”

Bell said the El Niño is creating conditions of strong trade winds and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic that should produce the “near-average” ocean temperatures suggesting fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

The forecast is in line with earlier forecasts released by Colorado State University and Weather Services International. Both call for a below normal Atlantic Hurricane season this year.

Despite the forecast Joe Mimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery, reminded people that, “It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm making landfall to have disastrous impacts on our communities.” He underscored the need to prepare for the worse and know understand the risks from a storm in your neighborhood.

Build it Back May Finally Work

Contact information for Build it Back

By Mark E. Ruquet

For anyone seeking information about the Build it Back program and their benefit eligibility, here is a presentation made by the current
director of the program to the Midland Beach Civic Association on May 14, 2014.

This is available by clicking here on YouTube.

Speaking later about the program in an e-mail to members, Debi Vadola, the Civic Association's Vice President, said that from comments people had after the presentation it "was the first time I ever heard anything positive said about BIB [Build it Back]." She went on to say that the new director, Amy Peterson, left people with the impression that something will finally be done to help residents finally put their lives back on track.

WSI Calls for Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hurricane Andrew, 1992. Courtesy of NOAA Photo Library

By Mark E. Ruquet

A weather forecasting company connected with the Weather Channel is calling for a quiet Atlantic Basin Hurricane season this year, the second notable service to do so.

Weather Services International (WSI), based in Andover, Mass., recently issued an update to an earlier forecast saying it expects 11 named storms of which five could become hurricanes. Of the five, two could become major hurricanes this season.

“These numbers are lower than both the 1950-2013 normals of 12 [named storms]/7 [hurricanes]/3 [major hurricanes] and the more recent active period (1995-2013) normals of 15 [named storms]/8 [hurricanes]/4 [major hurricanes],” said WSI in a statement.

“The latest data still suggests that a relatively quiet season is in store for the Atlantic basin,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford. “Tropical Atlantic surface temperatures are the coolest they’ve been for this time of year since 1994, and we are increasingly confident that a significant El Nino event is on the way, which typically results in an environment that is not favorable for Atlantic tropical development.”

WSI said it will update its forecast on May 20.

In my blog posting on April 29, I shared the April forecast from the Colorado State University hurricane research team led by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach. Their early season forecast calls for nine named storms of which three could become hurricanes and one may reach major hurricane strength.

Major hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale are Category 3, 4 or 5. The Category 3 storm has sustained winds between 111 – 130 mph and devastating damage will occur. The winds of a Category 4 storm will reach 131 – 155 mph and cause catastrophic damage, such as Hurricane Charley in 2004. The most fearsome is the Category 5 with sustained winds in excess of 155 mph. Hurricane Andrew, which hit Florida in 1992, was a Category 5 storm.

The Atlantic Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs to November 30.

One observation forecasters continually make is that despite the fact that it appears this year may shape up to be a “quiet” hurricane season, it only takes one major one to make landfall and turn everyone’s life upside down.