CSU Team Predicts Normal to Below-Normal Hurricane Season

CSU Hurricane Research Team William Gray (on the left)
& Phil Klotzbach. Photo from CSU Website. 

The Colorado State University hurricane research team released its April forecast predicting a normal to below-normal 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season.

The team, led by Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, said the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season can produce nine named storms of which three are expected to become hurricanes and one could reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

Klotzbach said the 2014 season is exhibiting weather characteristics similar to 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997 and 2002 hurricane seasons, all of which had normal or below-normal activity.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Nino event this summer and fall appear to be quite high,” said Klotzbach. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.”

The team said that 2014 tropical cyclone activity could be about 60 percent of the average season. The 2013 tropical cyclone season activity was about 40 percent of the average.

However, Klotzbach notes that it only takes one event to make it an active season for any region along the Atlantic coast. To further illustrate the point, in terms of insurance losses, of the top ten most expensive hurricanes listed by the Insurance Information Institute, Hurricane Betsy struck in September of 1965, which was a below normal season, causing $45 billion in insured losses and is ranked the sixth most expensive hurricane event in history.

The CSU team cautioned that the forecast is only an estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season that runs from June 1 to November 30. The Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone season runs from May 15 to November 30.

Among the estimates, the team says there is a 20 percent chance of a major hurricane (rated Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) making landfall on the U.S. East Coast this year. The average for the last century is 30 percent.

CSU will issue forecast updates on June 2 and July 31. The full report is available by clicking here for the press release, or go here to the university news website to connect to the April 10 press release.

The National Weather Service National Hurricane Center has not yet released its forecast, but typically does so in mid-May.   

    

17 Months and Where's the Help

Route of the March 29 Walk a Mile in Our Shoes
demonstration, Midland Beach, Staten Island, N.Y.

By Mark E. Ruquet

Residents fed-up with waiting for New York officials to make good on their promise to help them recover from Superstorm Sandy, gathered for a peaceful demonstration on a rainy Saturday morning in Midland Beach, Staten Island, N.Y.

Homeowners, some still waiting 17 months after Sandy devastated New York and New Jersey, were joined by civic association leaders, Congressman Michael Grimm and Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis for Walk a Mile in Our Shoes. The walk took place on March 29 beginning at the Turtle Circle with close to 100 residents gathering on this wet and chilly morning, walking a mile to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with the lack of progress city officials have made getting federal dollars promised to the victims.

Residents are upset with the slow pace of the state's buyout program under which homes will be purchased to return the property to its natural state or redevelopment.

The city's Build It Back program received the bulk of criticism. Speaking from my own personal experience, backed-up by the experience of others speaking in the attached video, Build It Back appears to be more concerned with accumulating paperwork than actually spending dollars to make people whole again, despite the promises of federal and local officials.

Please view Walk a Mile in Our Shoes Part I and II, and understand Staten Islander's frustration with the lack of progress.

Forgive the time it has taken to get this posted. I ran into a number of technical difficulties that delayed posting.

Click link to Part I

Click link to Part II